The Standoff
Breaks.
Six weeks of stalling. The first cracks in the data. What May reveals about the months to come.
Download the Update57 of 59 communities
below baseline.
Broker enquiries are real. They measure intent. The DLD measures completion. Strip out off-plan and the picture changes completely.
57/59
ready market communities below Feb 28 baseline
−50%
volume-weighted transaction decline vs pre-shock
76%
of April deals were off-plan, not ready market
30–60
days
lag between agreed price and DLD registration
Time isn't healing this.
Rolling ready market transaction windows vs the Feb 28 baseline. The acceleration as you zoom in is the story. Volume is still falling, not recovering.
Long view
−6%
Most Q4 2025 completions closed before the shock. The long window is still absorbing normal pre-shock activity.
Mid view
−31%
Now the shock period is fully in frame. The jump from 6 to 31 percent is the shape of a market where buyers paused, not sellers.
30-day window
−50%
Half the ready market transaction volume gone. Not recovering. The most recent data is the weakest data.
Download the May 2026 Market Update.
The full data set, community-level breakdown, and scenario analysis, all in one shareable PDF.
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