Q1 Report Update · May 2026

The Standoff
Breaks.

Six weeks of stalling. The first cracks in the data. What May reveals about the months to come.

Data window: 1 Jan – 10 May 2026 Dubai Land Department via Prop-AI Ready market only
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Powered by Prop-AI DLD Verified Data Alastair Sherriffs, Co-Founder
The Numbers

57 of 59 communities
below baseline.

Broker enquiries are real. They measure intent. The DLD measures completion. Strip out off-plan and the picture changes completely.

57/59

ready market communities below Feb 28 baseline

−50%

volume-weighted transaction decline vs pre-shock

76%

of April deals were off-plan, not ready market

30–60
days

lag between agreed price and DLD registration

The Signal

Time isn't healing this.

Rolling ready market transaction windows vs the Feb 28 baseline. The acceleration as you zoom in is the story. Volume is still falling, not recovering.

120-day window

Long view

−6%

Most Q4 2025 completions closed before the shock. The long window is still absorbing normal pre-shock activity.

90-day window

Mid view

−31%

Now the shock period is fully in frame. The jump from 6 to 31 percent is the shape of a market where buyers paused, not sellers.

Sharpest signal

30-day window

−50%

Half the ready market transaction volume gone. Not recovering. The most recent data is the weakest data.

The standoff has broken. The first registered deals below pre-shock PSF are now on record. This is not a recovery delayed. This is price discovery beginning. The floor of this cycle is forming on schedule.

Alastair Sherriffs

Co-Founder, Tribe

All transaction data sourced from the Dubai Land Department via Prop-AI. Data window: 1 January to 10 May 2026. Ready market transactions only.

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